Demography

Among all the forces likely to reshape the world in the next generation, demographic factors are probably the most significant. Demographic changes will relentlessly exert their influence on living standards, global politics, the natural environment, and interpersonal behavior.

An aging industrial world will grow more slowly and will need to learn to adapt. It must recognize that rapid growth is no longer as necessary as it was in the past. Growing populations will require infrastructural and housing investments. If industrialized countries wish to raise living standards, they must change how they utilize their existing workforce. When the number of working-age residents decreases, it will be necessary to more efficiently employ the existing labor force:

• Raise the retirement age;
• Increase the proportion of women in the workforce;
• Expand part-time employment;
• Encourage university students to take on part-time work during their studies;
• Support the reemployment of the unemployed;
• Facilitate multiple retrainings throughout life;
• Increase the scope of voluntary work;
• Place greater pressure on children to acquire marketable skills.

Whether or not adjustments are made to labor market changes, the structure of industrialized countries will shift. Demographic trends will steer these societies from production industries toward services. The healthcare and education sectors will expand. Retail (such as mail-order services), financial services, and leisure-related services will also grow.

"Aging Societies"
This world will be characterized by:

• Low inflation (older voters, who dominate elections, oppose rising prices);
• Low unemployment (as the proportion of the normal working-age population decreases);
• Low crime rates (most offenses are committed by younger individuals);
• Low tolerance for antisocial or unconventional behavior;
• A greater willingness to accept authority.

Changes in the labor market will influence societal attitudes. If part-time employment continues to expand, the relationship between employers and employees will dissolve, eliminating loyalty and allowing either party to freely terminate contractual agreements. This shift will elevate the value of saving, as employees will not always have stable jobs or will need to undergo retraining. Increased mobility will also promote saving. The accumulation of savings and their transfer to younger generations will create a new rentier class. The larger this group becomes, the greater its political influence will be. Moreover, they will play an important role as international financial resources, as their wealth will be mobile. They may choose their residence based on tax considerations.

The aging of the electorate may also widen the gap between expectations of governments and their ability to fulfill those expectations. The demand for expanded services will place significant pressure on state budgets.

The aging societies of the developed industrial world will be orderly, while younger societies will be more chaotic. The poor young people living on the fringes of cities will resent the conformist world of the wealthy, much as impoverished nations envy wealthy countries. The imbalance between these two worlds manifests in migration, which will be a key issue in the first half of the next century.

Migration will only slightly dampen population growth in the developing world, and industrialized countries cannot absorb these massive numbers. In Europe, there is little tradition of accepting refugees, and the influx of people from different ethnic and religious backgrounds poses challenges. Europe's capacity to accommodate migrants is minimal; there will be migration pressure but also resistance to it.

In contrast, the United States is capable of accepting immigrants, which will bring significant changes to its population composition. The cultural and ideological differences with Europe will grow, as the majority of the population will no longer be of European descent. Asia, on the other hand, will experience more internal migration.

The developed world must find ways to empower the developing world to improve living standards. However, it is unlikely that population growth alone will lead to a global catastrophe.

Hamish McRae "A világ 2020-ban" AduPrint kiadó, Budapest, 1996